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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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