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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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