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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of No ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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