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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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