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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
NEGATIVE 2016 OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN STEEL - SAYS FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: European steel in 2016 are both negative for the sector and for issuer ratings.
This reflects our expectation that import levels ...
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As s ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CS50 COAL INDEX CLOSED AT $40.27 PER TON; FELL 0.15% FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5700 GAR CS (i) coal index fell by US cents 3 per ton week over week on 20 November 2015. CS 57 (5700 GAR coal) index closed at U ...
Monday, 23 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL FURTHER ON LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.75 (13.99%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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