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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 November 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEEK ENDING 20 NOVEMBER CLOSED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and up on week over week. Coal prices seen slight improvements thi ...
Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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