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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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