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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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