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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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