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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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