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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q4' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE 4.41% TO $56.52 PMT
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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