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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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