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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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