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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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