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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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