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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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