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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of growth might now be over” and secondly “ whether the low prices have now bottomed out and are set to develop into a renewed upward trend” - German Coal Importer Association.
According to German Coal Importer Association, the forecasts for the global economy are showing an upward trend for 2015 with anticipated growth of 3.5% in gross domestic product globally, 3.1% in the USA and 1.3% in the Eurozone. As there is a correlation between demand for hard coal and economic growth, the conditions for an upward trend would appear to be present.
According to an estimate by the IEA, demand for coal in the years ahead is going to increase globally by an average of 2.1% per year. In absolute figures, that means an increase in demand from 8,247m tonnes in 2015 to 9,018m tonnes in 2019. The highest level of demand for additional quantities of coal will be shown by China with +661m tonnes and India with +251m tonnes in the five-year period. This means that by 2019, India will have overtaken the United States as a consumer of coal. The pace of growth will then slow down further – from annual growth of 5.3% in the period from 2005 to 2010 to a growth rate still at 2.1% in the period from 2015 to 2019. The lion's share of this growth will take place in the non-OECD states with growth rates of 3% per year.
The association further noted that, the reality is very close to the forecast: preliminary calculations by the VDKi for the first three months of 2015 indicate that the seaborne world market rose by just under 3% (8m tonnes) in comparison with the same period last year. Indonesia (+4m tonnes), Australia (+5m tonnes) and Colombia (+6m tonnes) increased their exports particularly strongly, while the USA (-5m tonnes) and Vietnam (-2m tonnes) cut back their exports. The other countries remained at their 2014 level.
Europe, on the other hand, has an oversupply of steam coal. This situation is accentuated by the further expansion of renewable, particularly in Germany and the UK, which will further reduce the peak use hours and therefore the demand for coal in the hard coal-fired power plants.
Despite these positive figures, the price developments can only be described, succinctly as "oversupply meets subdued demand".
According to presentation of VDKi, the development whereby a global oversupply of coal meets an insufficient increase in demand since 2011 continued in 2014. The pressure on prices consequently persisted in 2014 as well. In the period from January 2014 until today alone (10.7.2015), the prices for steam coal FOB Colombia declined from 72 US$/t to 52 US$/t, i.e. by approximately 30%.
Demand for steam coal in the Atlantic region has likewise remained rather weak between January and the present day. Accordingly, the further development of the price for steam coal will depend largely on the development of the Asian markets in particular, which in turn depend on the needs of China and India. Our research indicates that demand has fallen most markedly in China, while it has increased modestly in India.
All in all, we do not expect to see a significant increase in coal prices in the near future, German Coal Importer Association concluded in its presentation.
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Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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