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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of growth might now be over” and secondly “ whether the low prices have now bottomed out and are set to develop into a renewed upward trend” - German Coal Importer Association.
According to German Coal Importer Association, the forecasts for the global economy are showing an upward trend for 2015 with anticipated growth of 3.5% in gross domestic product globally, 3.1% in the USA and 1.3% in the Eurozone. As there is a correlation between demand for hard coal and economic growth, the conditions for an upward trend would appear to be present.
According to an estimate by the IEA, demand for coal in the years ahead is going to increase globally by an average of 2.1% per year. In absolute figures, that means an increase in demand from 8,247m tonnes in 2015 to 9,018m tonnes in 2019. The highest level of demand for additional quantities of coal will be shown by China with +661m tonnes and India with +251m tonnes in the five-year period. This means that by 2019, India will have overtaken the United States as a consumer of coal. The pace of growth will then slow down further – from annual growth of 5.3% in the period from 2005 to 2010 to a growth rate still at 2.1% in the period from 2015 to 2019. The lion's share of this growth will take place in the non-OECD states with growth rates of 3% per year.
The association further noted that, the reality is very close to the forecast: preliminary calculations by the VDKi for the first three months of 2015 indicate that the seaborne world market rose by just under 3% (8m tonnes) in comparison with the same period last year. Indonesia (+4m tonnes), Australia (+5m tonnes) and Colombia (+6m tonnes) increased their exports particularly strongly, while the USA (-5m tonnes) and Vietnam (-2m tonnes) cut back their exports. The other countries remained at their 2014 level.
Europe, on the other hand, has an oversupply of steam coal. This situation is accentuated by the further expansion of renewable, particularly in Germany and the UK, which will further reduce the peak use hours and therefore the demand for coal in the hard coal-fired power plants.
Despite these positive figures, the price developments can only be described, succinctly as "oversupply meets subdued demand".
According to presentation of VDKi, the development whereby a global oversupply of coal meets an insufficient increase in demand since 2011 continued in 2014. The pressure on prices consequently persisted in 2014 as well. In the period from January 2014 until today alone (10.7.2015), the prices for steam coal FOB Colombia declined from 72 US$/t to 52 US$/t, i.e. by approximately 30%.
Demand for steam coal in the Atlantic region has likewise remained rather weak between January and the present day. Accordingly, the further development of the price for steam coal will depend largely on the development of the Asian markets in particular, which in turn depend on the needs of China and India. Our research indicates that demand has fallen most markedly in China, while it has increased modestly in India.
All in all, we do not expect to see a significant increase in coal prices in the near future, German Coal Importer Association concluded in its presentation.
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Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES KEPT RALLYING LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Strong Capesize performance kept supporting the Dry Bulk market last week, which noted another positive weekly closing, while rates f ...
Thursday, 13 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FALLING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET: WITHOUT A DOUBT REACHED HEALTHIER LEVEL
A few weeks before the end of the summer season, the BDI is hovering around 1,200 points, providing some much needed optimism to all Dry Bulk marke ...
Wednesday, 12 August 15
REGULATION CURBS POWER OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MINING SECTOR IN INDONESIA - FLORENCE G. SANTOSO
The Indonesian Government appears to be getting serious about stripping Regents of the authority to issue mining licenses. The Government took the ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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