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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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