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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
Friday, 13 March 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.3% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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