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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S IMPORTS - NEVER MORE IMPORTANT TO SHIPPING? - CLARKSONS
Over the last 15 years China has led maritime forecasters a right old dance. In 2002, rumours that Chinese iron ore imports were about to take off ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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