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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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