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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
Sunday, 05 April 15
FREIGHT RATES UNDER PRESSURE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Indices fell on all segments and the market seemed to soften this week.
The BDI was almost lost 1.34% week over week and clo ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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