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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overa ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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