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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 21 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-O-W; DECLINED M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 gained week over week and declined month on month.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 1.75 ( ...
Tuesday, 21 April 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP MOVE UP SLIGHTLY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased slightly month over month.
The Q2 swap has increased US$ 0.2 ...
Monday, 20 April 15
BUKIT ASAM TAKES OVER STAKE IN JV FROM RAJAWALI - JP
State-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) announced Friday that it had taken over almost the entire stake in a joint venture (JV) that it created ...
Monday, 20 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.54 per MT (-7.21%) month over month and gained US$ 0.30 week ...
Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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