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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
Friday, 24 April 15
CHINA IRON ORE MINE CLOSURES TO SLOW ON GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - FITCH
Fitch Ratings expects fewer Chinese iron ore mine closures in 2015 as the government takes steps to support the industry, which has been struggling ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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