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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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