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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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