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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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