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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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