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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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