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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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