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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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