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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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