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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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