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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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