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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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