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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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