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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 May 15
COMBINATION OF HOLIDAYS AND A SHAKY MARKET PUT ADDITIONAL PRESSURE ON RATES
COALspot.com: The combination of holidays and a shaky market is always a recipe for additional pressure on rates and last week was no exception. Wi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
The first four months of 2015 are now behind us and they make up for a decent amount of time to look back and assess how the year is evolving so fa ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
MIFA BERSAUDARA UNIT OF ABM INVESTAMA STARTS OPERATING $200M COAL MINE IN ACEH
Reswara Minergi Hartama, a coal mining unit of coal miner ABM Investama known as known as Reswara, inaugurated a $200 million integrated coal minin ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
FREIGHT DERIVATIVE VOLUMES REACHED TOTALED 14,154 CONTRACTS IN APRIL - SGX
COALspot.com: “Our unique suite of freight and bulk commodity products provides market participants with a wide range of trading strategies a ...
Tuesday, 05 May 15
OVERSUPPLY PUTTING INDONESIAN COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 1 ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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