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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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