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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDIA TO SURPASS THE UNITED STATES AND BECOME THE SECOND-LARGEST COAL CONSUMER IN THE WORLD BY 2019 - IMF
COALspot.com: In 2013, coal added more primary energy than any other fuel and was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, enhancing its position as the se ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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