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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q1 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 47.87 FOR WEEK ENDING JAN. 23
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 gain week over week and declined month on month.
The Q1 swap has decline US$ 0.9 ...
Tuesday, 27 January 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP 4.5% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.28 per MT (-0.54%) month over month and increased US$ 1.23 ( ...
Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014
COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and s ...
Monday, 26 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY Q2 COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has fell ...
Monday, 26 January 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CONTINUE TO SLIDE M-O-M; ROSE W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.79 (-1.33%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 2.10&nb ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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