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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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