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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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