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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its producti ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
Q1'15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.29 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q1 swap up US$ 0.68 (+1.41%) month o ...
Tuesday, 03 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 5.86% LOWER THAN Q1 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.26 per MT (+0.51%) week over week and declined US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) ...
Monday, 02 February 15
API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and day on day.
The Q1 swap has decli ...
Monday, 02 February 15
INDONESIA'S ADARO ENERGY PRODUCED 56.21 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 2014; UP 8% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s largest coal producer, has increased coal production by 8% to 56.21 million tonnes (Mt) from both ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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