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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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