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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Tuesday, 03 March 15
Q4' FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 2% LOWER COMPARED TO Q2 CLOSING PRICE OF $ 47.47
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose month on month and declined week over week.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 2.24 ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: Q2 UP 9.60%; Q3 UP 9.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 5 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q2 DELIVERY REACHED $ 57.50 PMT W/E 27 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.37 (+2.44%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 0.42 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
BORYEONG POWER PLANT OF KOMIPO TO IMPORT 140K OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) is inviting bids from coal producers, marketing companies, or traders to supply of 140,000 (70 ...
Monday, 02 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ROSE 6.89% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 3.35 per MT (+6.89%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (0.78%) week on ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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