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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Wednesday, 25 February 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.16MT OF COAL IN JANUARY; DECLINED 16.70% FROM A MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.15 billio ...
Wednesday, 25 February 15
BDI SLIPPING ONCE MORE TO FRESH HISTORICAL LOWS
COALspot.com: With the BDI slipping once more to fresh historical lows and the Chinese holidays underway, signs for a positive reversal in the Dry ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SET TO RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap increased US$ 3.30 (+7.30%) ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
Q3' FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED $59.80 W/E 20 FEB
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and decline week on week.
The Q2 swap has soar ...
Tuesday, 24 February 15
IHS ENERGY COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
Attend the IHS Energy Coal Conference of the Americas 17-19 March in Cartagena, Colombia and learn about timely concerns in today's coal indust ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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