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Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the formation of a new commodity superhighway. This new superhighway will impact the energy trade flows within China and externally via the new Silk Road routes; which acts to link the country's east to west, onwards to Central Asia and beyond. This represents significant business and investment opportunities in China's west.
Wood Mackenzie’s Principal Asia Economist, Ms Cynthia Lim, explains China’s Go West policy, “The plan is already underway and is often touted as China’s silver bullet to ensure long-term GDP growth as the economically dominant coastal region approaches maturity. The coastal provinces will have to upgrade their industries to higher value-add sectors, such as services while industries will relocate inland westwards. This is shifting the regional distribution of demand centres and power generation; and the impact will become more apparent in the next two decades. This will form an impressive commodity superhighway.”
The commodity superhighway will have three main implications: "The first implication," says Mr Frank Yu, Senior Asia Power Consultant, “Is that power generation in the central and western regions will almost triple from around 3,200 Terrawatt hours (TWh) in 2015 to almost 9,600TWh in 2035. This far outpaces the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the coastal region’s generation growth in the same period, which is only set to increase from under 3,000TWh to 6,000TWh.”
The second implication is the emergence of new energy trade flows within China, from the inland west to coastal regions of China. Mr Yu explains, “Coastal regions will become further reliant on China’s west to meet its energy demand. The west has an abundant supply of energy, accounting for more than 65% of China’s marketable coal and gas reserves. As coal remains the dominant fuel, coal-fired power plants in central and western province areas will generate more power to feed demand-heavy coastal centres through long-distance power transmission grids. Additionally, the west holds the majority of renewable energy potential – hydropower, wind and solar. We also expect shale gas production in the west to ramp up, particularly from Sichuan, Shaanxi and Xinjiang, to around 140 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2035. ”
Wood Mackenzie says the third implication is that planned transport infrastructure build will open up new markets in Central Asia and facilitate energy imports into China via its western border. China is planning two main routes – the new land-borne ‘Silk Road Economic Belt’ and the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’, from southeast China to west Asia, via the South China sea. Infrastructure development will make Xinjiang a key gateway for commodity trade between China, Central Asia and Russia. Ms Lim says, “Xinjiang is strategically important because of its rich energy resources and as a transport hub with oil and gas supplies from Central Asia and Russia converging before being distributed for use in the east.
“For China’s west to fulfil its growth potential, significant investment is needed in energy production and transport infrastructure. We estimate that investment in new power generation capacity and coal mines in Xinjiang, for example, will total US$140billion (bn) and US$120bn respectively in the next 20 years. However, there are also key risks to the success of this commodity superhighway that investors will have to watch for.”
Wood Mackenzie's analysis says the risks are: Firstly, the pace and scale of economic and energy reforms - slow progress in restructuring provincial government debt and introducing market pricing for gas and power could subdue western development. Secondly, the rate of building infrastructure for power transmission as this is key for the success of trade routes with coastal China and Central Asia. Thirdly, water scarcity as it could mean coal mining and power plants that already face cost pressure from extra raw material preparation requirements like coal washing could face higher costs. Lastly, political risks must be managed – this includes diplomatic relationships with China’s Central Asian neighbours in building the new trade routes as well as potential domestic unrest in Xinjiang.
Ms Lim concludes, “Many of the risks can be mitigated through government support and finance but the geopolitical and social risks are far less predictable. China’s west has the energy resources, cost advantages and policy support to become a new energy and commodity superhighway, re-defining the flow of trade for decades to come. It could drive robust GDP growth for China through the longer-term and strengthen China’s economic and political influence with its neighbours. Given the high stakes of this commodity superhighway, success of the Go West strategy is a major Chinese government priority.”
About Wood Mackenzie:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, chemicals, metals and mining industries, providing objective analysis and advice on assets, companies, and markets to leading international and national energy and metals companies as well as financial institutions and governments.
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Thursday, 05 March 15
BUKIT ASAM BOOKED US$ 1 BILLION REVENUE IN 2014
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state owned coal miner PT. Bukit Asam, has announced that, the revenue of the company for the period J ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
AN AGENDA FOR CHANGE - FITCH INDONESIA CONFERENCE
Fitch Indonesia Conference - 5 March 2015
Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia conference on 5 March 2015.
The theme of this year ...
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME TO DECLINE 50% BY 2019
COALspot.com: The Indonesian government is planning to reduce coal export volume by 50% within the next five years while keeping its coal productio ...
Tuesday, 03 March 15
INDIAN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS: STEAMING FORWARD - CLARKSONS
Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal pric ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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