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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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