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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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