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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 20 April 15
Q4' 2015 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 50.28 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.03 (-7.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.05 (-0 ...
Sunday, 19 April 15
THE OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET SHOWED STEADY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady this week. The BDI was up 2.93% to 597 points week over week. The cape index was also increased ...
Friday, 17 April 15
IHS ENERGY EUROPEAN COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
Attend the IHS Energy European Coal Outlook Conference 19-20 May in Nice, France and learn about timely concerns in today’s coal industry.
...
Friday, 17 April 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.0 million short ...
Thursday, 16 April 15
NEW COMMODITY SUPERHIGHWAY WILL EMERGE IN CHINA, ALTERING ENERGY TRADE FLOWS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s Go West strategy – encouraging coastal to inland flow of capital and people - will result in the forma ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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