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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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