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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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