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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 10 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET'S DOWNFALL ALSO OFFER INVESTMENT BARGAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk market rates have fallen to historical lows over the past few weeks, with no clear path of recovery, at least in the near term. As such, m ...
Thursday, 09 April 15
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE STILL DISAPPOINTING - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The handy market had a stronger sentiment before the Easter holidays, but have as the bigger panamaxes seen a softening tendency this week. ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET SEEMS UNABLE TO CATCH A BREAK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seems unable to catch a break these days.
According to Intermodal, following the market stabilization that p ...
Wednesday, 08 April 15
CHINA BURNS HALF OF THE WORLD'S COAL - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
Intermodal Weekly Market Update
China is the world's largest consumer of coal, using more coal each year than the United States, the Europ ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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